MARCE: Tropical Depression Forms East of the Philippines

MARCE: Tropical Depression Forms East of the Philippines

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 Tropical Weather Update: Potential Cyclone Marce's Path and Impact

MANILA, Philippines  - On Sunday, November 3, 2024 a low-pressure area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) intensified into a tropical depression at 2 pm. By 4 pm, it lingered outside PAR, positioned 1,315 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas. The system swiftly moved northwest at a brisk pace of 30 kilometers per hour, hinting at a potential entry into PAR by Monday, November 4, 2024.

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PAGASA Satellite Image Shows Tropical Depression Outside PAR, November 3, 2024, 5 pm.
PAGASA:  Satellite Image Shows Tropical Depression Outside PAR, November 3, 2024, 5 pm.

Upon entering PAR, this system will mark the 13th tropical cyclone in the Philippines for 2024, christened locally as Marce. Presently, it sustains maximum winds of 55 km/h with gusts reaching up to 70 km/h. 


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The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) projected its northwest trajectory until Tuesday, November 5, anticipating a significant slowdown with a northern shift thereafter, starting Wednesday, November 6.

Tropical Depression Forms East of Philippines, Potential for Heavy Rainfall in Northern Luzon

However, PAGASA highlighted a considerable degree of uncertainty in the forecast beyond the initial trajectory. It outlined two plausible scenarios: first, a westward movement towards extreme Northern Luzon or mainland Luzon, and second, erratic motion over the Philippine Sea east of extreme Northern Luzon. The cyclone's intensity is expected to escalate, potentially reaching tropical storm status before entering PAR, upgrading to a severe tropical storm by Tuesday, and intensifying to a typhoon by Wednesday.

In terms of rainfall, PAGASA foresees the tropical depression reinforcing the northeasterly windflow, possibly inducing precipitation in extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern regions of Luzon from Monday onwards. The collaboration between the northeasterly windflow and the system's extension may trigger significant rainfall in these areas, affecting local communities and necessitating precautionary measures.


As the situation evolves, continuous monitoring and adherence to official updates from PAGASA are crucial for communities potentially impacted by the developing tropical cyclone. Stay informed, stay safe, and be prepared for any eventualities associated with the progression of Potential Cyclone Marce.

PAGASA Satellite Image Shows Tropical Depression Outside PAR, November 3, 2024, 5 pm.
PAGASA Satellite Image Shows Tropical Depression Outside PAR, November 3, 2024, 5 pm.

As the country braces for the arrival of a looming tropical cyclone, the Philippine weather bureau issues cautionary alerts, emphasizing the possibility of heavy to torrential rains in Northern Luzon. This warning comes with the caveat that any deviation in the forecast track towards a landfall scenario could exacerbate the situation, potentially leading to floods and landslides, particularly in hazard-prone areas and regions already saturated by recent heavy rainfall.

Northern Luzon, still reeling from the effects of super typhoon Leon (Kong-rey) that struck in late October, remains vulnerable to the impending weather disturbance. The memory of past devastation serves as a stark reminder of the region's susceptibility to natural disasters and the urgent need for proactive preparedness measures.


The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) underscores the expected deterioration of conditions along the seaboards of Northern Luzon, as well as the western and eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon in the event of an intensification of the northeasterly windflow induced by the approaching cyclone.


With the northeasterly windflow already causing moderate to rough seas in Northern Luzon's coastal areas, the anticipation of further escalation heightens concerns for coastal communities and maritime activities. The impact of such adverse weather conditions extends beyond the immediate shoreline, emphasizing the need for comprehensive safety measures and early warnings to mitigate potential risks.


Ahead of the tropical cyclone's potential entry into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), the country experiences isolated rainfall on Sunday, providing a brief respite before the impending weather disturbance takes center stage. While Batanes and the Babuyan Islands grapple with the effects of the northeasterly windflow, other regions such as Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Aurora, Quezon, and Cagayan Valley face the influence of easterlies, warm winds originating from the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean.

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In the remaining parts of the Philippines, localized thunderstorms contribute to sporadic rain showers, underscoring the variability of weather patterns across the archipelago. As the nation prepares for the potential impacts of the approaching tropical cyclone, vigilance, readiness, and adherence to official advisories remain paramount in safeguarding lives and minimizing the repercussions of inclement weather events.

As the nation navigates through these challenging times, unity, resilience, and proactive measures stand as pillars of strength in confronting the uncertainties posed by nature's forces. Stay informed, stay safe, and stand together in weathering the storms that lie ahead. - WTY majaits.com



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